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1. lenrosen4 says:

   June 12, 2012 at 8:02 pm

   Mubarak will die in the next few days and it will be interesting to see how his passing will be celebrated or mourned by the people of Egypt. I think a bit of both will be on display. But in his passing the Egyptian people will see the end of a dynastic rule of missed opportunities beginning with Nasser.

   When the Egyptian military overthrew King Farouk they installed a populist government backed by the armed forces. That remained the model throughout Nasser’s rule. The military, however, showed that it was seriously deficient through a series of wars with Israel and with its limited success in Yemen.

   Under Sadat, also a populist leader backed by the military, Egypt’s armed forces restored some dignity to their reputation although the Yom Kippur war exposed their Soviet Achilles Heel. Sadat took the initiative to end the conflict with Israel and restored Egypt’s Sinai boundary.

   Mubarak, as Sadat’s successor, has taken little initiative to demonstrate Egyptian leadership in the larger Middle East. Also backed by the military but hardly a populist, Mubarak has served as a transition figure in Egypt. Unrevered when compared to his predecessors he has done little to build the country into a modern state that provided motivation and opportunity for its increasingly youthful population. Out of touch and out of synch with Egyptian society he ultimately failed as soon as the military conceded that he was no longer their asset.

   If he dies before the election he may prove to have a greater influence on Egypt’s future than he would have if he had remained in power.

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