Arctic storms seen worsening; threat to oil, ships

Arctic storms could worsen because of global warming in a threat to possible new businesses such as oil and gas exploration, fisheries or shipping, a study showed .

“Large increases in the potential for extreme weather events were found along the entire southern rim of the Arctic Ocean, including the Barents, Bering and Beaufort Seas,” according to the study of Arctic weather by scientists in Norway and Britain.

A shrinking of sea ice around the North Pole, which thawed to a record low in the summer of 2007, was likely to spawn more powerful storms that form only over open water and can cause hurricane-strength winds.

“The bad news is that as the sea ice retreats you open up a lot of new areas to this kind of extreme weather,” said Erik Kolstad of the Bjerknes Center for Climate Change in Norway who wrote the study with a British Antarctic Survey researcher.

Potential new businesses in the North — such as fisheries, oil and gas or shipping — would be vulnerable to extremes caused by polar lows and arctic fronts, the researchers wrote in the journal Climate Dynamics.

Companies needed to factor in risks of worsening weather in planning, especially at times of year with least sea ice. “In autumn and early winter there will be polar lows in many new regions,” Kolstad told Reuters.

He said that there would be less ice and more storms, for instance, in the eastern Barents Sea where Russian group Gazprom aims to develop the giant Shtokman gas field.

SHIPS

And potential new short-cut shipping routes between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans along the northern coast of Canada and Alaska or Russia could turn out to be stormier than expected.

He also said that more storms could increase erosion of coasts in the sparsely populated Arctic.

The report was based on data collected in the European Arctic and focused on Arctic change. It also suggested that more populated regions further south in Europe might benefit if storms tended northwards.

“This may prove to be good news for people along the coastlines of Norway, Iceland, the British Isles and Northern Europe in general,” a statement said.

The U.N. Climate Panel says that a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mainly from burning fossil fuels, is stoking a warming that will cause more heatwaves, floods and droughts and rising sea levels.

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Andromeda Galaxy

A Large Spiral Galaxy
Wider and possibly brighter than our own Milky Way, the Andromeda Galaxy was once thought to be the dominant member of the Local Group of galaxies. Although it is Milky Way’s nearest large galactic neighbor, this large spiral galaxy (type Sb with two arms) lies around 2.52 ± 0.14 million light-years (ly) from the Solar System (Ribas et al, 2005). It can be found in (0:40:27+40:40:12, J2000; and 0:42:44.3+41:16:9.4, ICRS 2000) Constellation Andromeda, the Chained Maiden. It is located northwest of Mu and Beta Andromedae (Mirach); west of Nu Andromedae; northeast of Theta and Sigma Andromedae; north of Pi, Delta, and Epsilon Andromedae; and south of Theta and Omega Cassiopeiae. Andromeda can be seen by Human eyes from Earth without a telescope as a “little cloud” (see Akira Fujii’s photo to better relate the galaxy’s location to the brightest stars of Constellation Andromeda).

Andromeda has a bright disk that is now believed to span as much as 228,000 ly in width (Chapman et al, 2005). In 2005, astronomers announced that Andromeda’s disk actally extends far further out, so that the disk spans at least 260,000 light-years — almost twice the size of the bright disk seen in photographs (Ibata et al, 2005). The outer disk emits nearly 10 percent of the galaxy’s total light and may be comprised of metal-poor stars stripped from smaller galaxies that strayed too close. On January 7, 2007, a team of astronomers announced the discovery of low-metallicity, red giant stars up to some 500,000 light-years from Andromeda’s core which suggests that the galaxy is much larger than originally thought, so that Andromeda’s luminous halo may actually overlap with that of the Milky Way (BBC News ).

Recent observations indicate that, although the spiral disk of Andromeda may be much larger than that of the Milky Way, the galaxy appears to be much less dense, with a smaller mass counting its dark matter halo

Young stars are probably being born in many dusty regions of Andromeda that are bright in infrared wavelengths, with many short-lived but massive, blue stars in the more intense white and yellow areas Young stars are probably being born in many dusty regions of Andromeda that are bright in infrared wavelengths, with many short-lived but massive, blue stars in the more intense white and yellow areas

Careful estimates of Andromeda’s angular diameter obtained using 2-inch binoculars by Robert Jonckhere from 1952 to 1953 indicated that Andromeda’s disk had a diameter of over 200,000 ly (assuming a distance of 2.9 million ly). Hence, Andromeda’s spiral disk may as much as twice as large as the Milky Way’s. Although Andromeda was long thought to be the most massive galaxy in the Local Group, recent data suggest that Andromeda’s visible mass may total around 300 to 400 billion Solar-masses. This is considerably less than more recent estimates of the Milky Way’s visible mass of as much as 600 billion or more Solar-masses, which suggests that the Milky Way may be much denser than Andromeda. These results apparently have been confirmed by recent estimates of the total halo masses of the two spirals that account for the gravitational effects of their invisible dark matter, which suggest that Andromeda has a total of around 700 billion to 1.2 trillion Solar-masses compared to 0.93 to 1.9 trillion or more for the Milky Way.

Andromeda has an extreme warp in its outer spiral disk, possibly from interactions with satellite galaxies

Andromeda has an “extreme” warp in its outer spiral disk, possibly from interactions with satellite galaxies

Astronomers have been finding evidence of a warp in Andromeda’s spiral disk for some time. The faint outer parts of a spiral galaxy are more susceptible to warping because they are less strongly bound by the gravitational and other forces that keep disk stars in a plane and are also more susceptible to the influence of neighboring galaxies. As a result, the outer regions of a rotating body of stars and gas can deviate from the plane of the disk, like an old record album exposed to too much heat. Such a warp tends to occur at the outer edges, while the inner part of the spiral disk continues to look reasonably flat. Andromeda’s warp is especially pronounced on the northeast (left) side of its major axis. Such galactic warps are very difficult to demonstrate conclusively because the outer portions of a spiral disk are extremely faint compared to their bright central regions. However, the warp in Andromeda may be the most extreme case of a warped spiral galaxy found thus far. Possible causes of the warp include interactions between Andromeda and its smaller satellite galaxies .

This ultraviolet image highlights a 150,000-ly-wide ring of young and hot, blue stars that surrounds Andromeda's central bulge

On October 18, 2006, astronomers using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope announced the discovery of two dust rings (or “holes”) in Andromeda’s dust disk using infrared light that provide evidence of an ancient head-on collision with neighboring dwarf galaxy along its polar axis Messier 32 (M32) some 210 million years ago. Computer simulations support the hypothesis that the passage of the much smaller galaxy created violent waves of gravitational interactions that left rings of gas and dust propagating outward from the site of the impact. Since Andromeda is much more massive than M32, the larger galaxy was not substantially disrupted, but M32 lost more than half its initial mass in the course of the collision.

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Volcanoes Erupt in Japan and Russia, Spreading Ash

Two volcanoes in Japan and another in eastern Russia erupted overnight, spreading ash as far as the Philippines and Vietnam, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on its Web site.

Seven minor eruptions occurred at Mount Sakurajima on Japan’s southern island of Kyushu, throwing rocks up to 2 kilometers, the agency said. Eruptions at Mount Asama in central Japan and Karymsky Volcano on the Russian peninsula of Kamchatka were also reported. There were no reports of damage or injuries.

“I woke up after midnight to the sound and shake of the eruption,” Daisuke Tanaka, 24, a convenience-store attendant, who lives about 20 kilometers away from Asama, said by telephone today. “The sound was as if an airplane was taking off nearby and it continued for 30 minutes.”

The eruptions occurred in a region where four tectonic plates, the Eurasian, Philippine, North American and Pacific, meet, causing seismic activity.

Japan has 108 active volcanoes representing about 10 percent of the world’s total. Forty-three people died in 1991 after Mount Unzen erupted on the southern island of Kyushu, while 15,000 people were evacuated after Mount Usu erupted on the northern island of Hokkaido in 2000.

The 2,568 meter Asama, which last had a minor eruption in August last year, is one of the most active volcanoes in Japan. A major eruption in 1783 killed more than 1,000 people.

The meteorological agency raised its alert levels for both Asama and Sakurajima, prohibiting people from entering the area around the volcano.

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Scientist see holes in glacier at Alaska Volcano

ANCHORAGE, Alaska – Geologists monitoring Mount Redoubt for signs of a possible eruption noticed that a hole in the glacier clinging to the north side of the volcano had doubled in size overnight — and now spans the length of two football fields. Scientists with the Alaska Volcano Observatory on Friday flew close to Drift Glacier and spotted vigorous steam emitted from a hole on the mountain. By Saturday, they had confirmed the area was a fumarole, an opening in the earth that emits gases and steam, that was increasing in size at an alarming rate. They also saw water streaming down the glacier, indicating heat from magma is reaching higher elevations of the mountain. “The glacier is sort of falling apart in the upper part,” research geologist Kristi Wallace said. The signs of heat add to concerns that an eruption is near, which could send an ash cloud about 100 miles northeast toward Anchorage, the state’s largest city, or onto communities on the Kenai Peninsula, which is even closer to the mountain on the west side of Cook Inlet. It would be the first eruption since 1990. Particulate released during an eruption has jagged edges and can injure skin, eyes and breathing passages, especially in young children, the elderly and people with respiratory problems. It can also foul engines. An eruption in December 1989 sent out an ash cloud 150 miles that flamed out the jet engines of a KLM flight carrying 231 passengers on its way to Anchorage. The jet dropped more than two miles before pilots were able to restart the engines and land safely. A week ago, the observatory detected a sharp increase in earthquake activity below the volcano and upgraded its alert level to orange, the stage just before full eruption. The warning that an eruption was imminent caused a rush on dust masks and car air filters in Anchorage. Alaska’s volcanoes typically start with an explosion that can shoot ash 50,000 feet high and into the jet stream, but there are warning signs because magma causes small earthquakes as it moves. Geologist Jennifer Adleman said the observatory has been recording quakes up to magnitude 2.1 but not at the frequency that preceded the last two eruptions in 1989 and 1990. “We’re looking for an increase of seismicity to match the precursor activity,” Wallace said. “We haven’t seen that yet.”

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