Emeritus professor of geology Don J. Easterbrook writes to Marc Morano:
Yes, I saw the entry in your report (and well done, I might add). What prompted me to send you some additional material was not your report, but rather Revkin’s NY Times article in which he (1) quotes a bunch of CO2 dogmatists as saying the cooling is just a minor blip and we’ll be back headed for toast very soon, and (2) although he quotes you, he doesn’t quote any scientists who have good data that what we’re seeing is not just weather, but rather a fully expected change to a global cooling mode. So I sent you a bunch of data that I thought might be useful in responding to the global cooling deniers, namely:
1. We’ve been on a predicted cooling trend since 2002 (see attached curve). The average of the four main temperature measuring methods is slightly cooler since 2002 (except for a brief el Nino interuption) and record breaking cooling this winter. The argument that this is too short a time period to be meanful would be valid were it not for the fact that this cooling exactly fits the pattern of timing of warm/cool cycles over the past 400 years and was predicted (see publications I sent earlier).
2. We are entering a solar cycle of much reduced sun spots, very similar to that which accompanied the change from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age, which virtually all scientists agree was caused by solar variation. Thus, we seem to be headed for cooler temperatures as a result of reduce solar irradiance.
3. Sea surface temperatures in the NE Pacific mirror the atmospheric observations of cooling since 2002.
4. Some glaciers are slowing their rate of retreat in response to the past 6 years of cooling. (They aren’t readvancing yet because it takes awhile for a turnaround.
So what is the significance of the present globally icy winter and slight cooling for the past 6 years? By itself, it’s weather and arguably not statistically important. However, when considered in the light of the past 6-year cooling trend, the continuation of that pattern is important because if we are to believe the IPCC’s prediction of a 1° F warming by 2011, that will require warming of almost 1° F in the next three years! The IPCC recasts its predictions every year to match actual conditions so they appear to stay ‘on-track.’ However, they made finite predictions some years ago and if IPCC is to remain credible, those predictions need to be accountable. In a nutshell, in 2001, I put my reputation on the line and published my predictions for entering a global cooling cycle about 2007 (plus or minus 3-5 years), based on past glacial, ice core, and other data. As right now, my prediction seems to be right on target and what we would expect from the past climatic record, but the IPCC prediction is getting farther and farther off the mark. With the apparent solar cooling cycle upon us, we have a ready explanation for global warming and cooling. If the present cooling trend continues, the IPCC reports will have been the biggest farce in the history of science.
Anyway, I wanted to provide you with real data to substantiate the concept that we have entered a period of real global cooling, not just a cold winter.
Keep up the good work!