Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tourism Industry

Here are the main points:

  • The World Travel and Tourism Council has warned the COVID-19 pandemic could cut 50 million jobs worldwide in the travel and tourism industry.
  • Asia is expected to be the worst affected.
  • Once the outbreak is over, it could take up to 10 months for the industry to recover.
  • The tourism industry currently accounts for 10% of global GDP.

The coronavirus epidemic is putting up to 50 million jobs in the global travel and tourism sector at risk, with travel likely to slump by a quarter this year, Asia is the most affected continent, the World Travel and Tourism Council has said.

This impact would depend on how long the epidemic lasts and could still be exacerbated by recent restrictive measures, such as those taken by the U.S. administration on travel to Europe, WTTC’s managing director Virginia Messina told Reuters.

“Certain measures are not helping and they can prompt the economic impact to be way more significant,” Messina said referring to the U.S. decision.

She argued that such policies are too generic and not proven to be effective to contain the virus. She also said that such restrictions could complicate travel by medical experts and the delivery of medical supplies.

People wear protective masks, amid coronavirus fears, at Guarulhos International Airport in Guarulhos, Sao Paulo state, BraziI March 12, 2020. Picture taken March 12, 2020. REUTERS/Rahel Patrasso - RC2YIF91J9G8
Airlines have seen a sharp decrease in passengers.
Image: REUTERS/Rahel Patrasso

Around 850,000 people travel each month from Europe to the United States, equivalent to a $3.4 billion monthly contribution to the U.S. economy, Messina said.

Of the 50 million jobs that could be lost, around 30 million would be in Asia, seven million in Europe, five million in the Americas and the rest in other continents, she projected.

Empty chairs are seen on a beach which is usually full of tourists, amid fear of coronavirus in Phuket, Thailand March 11, 2020. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun - RC2NHF9SD709
An empty beach in Phuket, Thailand.
Image: REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

The equivalent to a loss of three months of global travel in 2020 could lead to a corresponding reduction in jobs of between 12% and 14%, the WTTC said, also calling on governments to remove or simplify visas wherever possible, cut travel taxes and introduce incentives once the epidemic is under control.

She also encouraged flexibility in the sector, so that travelers can postpone and not cancel their plans.

Coronavirus Covid-19 virus infection China Hubei Wuhan contagion spread travel trade health industry economics
It could take up to 10 months for the tourism industry to recover from the shock of coronavirus.
Image: WTTC

By sector, airlines and cruise ships were currently being more impacted than hotels, the official added.

The tourism industry accounts for 10% of the world’s GDP and jobs.

The WTTC official defended the confinement of certain towns – as is currently happening in Italy and Spain – if health officials recommend it to contain the outbreak, but only in specifically targeted areas or for certain age groups.

Messina estimated that, once the outbreak is under control, it would take up to 10 months for the tourism sector to return to its normal levels.

Source:

World Economic Forum

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10 Reasons to Focus on tier II Cities

Cities around the world are increasingly becoming the main drivers of trade, investment and local economic development.  However, not enough attention is being paid to the fastest-growing urban areas of all, and the ones with the greatest potential to shape our urban future: secondary cities.

These cities, ranging in size from between 150,000 and five million, represent one of the biggest opportunities for urbanising economies globally. Some 75 per cent of the world’s population lives in urban settlements of fewer than 500,000 people.

Despite their growing role, countries often ignore the productive role that secondary cities can play in a balanced national system of cities. As a result, many secondary cities are facing numerous development challenges – including creating jobs, attracting investment for needed infrastructure, and diversifying or revitalising their economies – with far fewer options than their larger counterparts.

Another issue centres around migration and the growth of primary cities. In countries around the world, there are tremendous disparities between primary cities and secondary or tertiary cities. Many migrants arrive in secondary cities from their places of origin and then move on to primary cities, making it more difficult to achieve a balanced system of cities.  Why are secondary cities unable to retain more of these migrants? Often, they lack investments and become administrative cities rather than drivers of the economy.

Ten Reasons to Focus on Secondary Cities

1. They are the fastest-growing urban areas. Some 75 per cent of the world’s population lives in urban settlements of fewer than 500,000 people. This number will only increase; secondary cities, especially in African countries, are expected to double or even triple in population over the next 15 to 25 years. This means large infrastructure and service shortfalls, few opportunities for economic growth, and rising urban poverty.

2. There are a lot of them, especially in developing countries.
There are more than 4,000 cities in the world with populations exceeding 100,000. Around 2,400 of these have populations of fewer than 750,000 and more than 60 per cent are located in developing regions and countries. Many are struggling with the problems of rapid urbanisation, poverty and job creation.

3. Many are poor and struggling. The rapid urbanisation of many secondary cities has come at a considerable environmental and social cost. Many secondary cities are poor and overcome by the pressures of development resulting from urbanisation. They often have weak or dysfunctional governance systems; urban development takes place uncontrolled without any consideration of plans, there is little urban infrastructure and provide services, and little attention is given to building and development control. In many cities, slums are growing unchecked.

4. They are the economic backbone of the world’s largest cities. Secondary cities produce less than 40 per cent of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP)but provide most of the resources needed to support the operations and development of the world’s 600 largest cities, which produce 60 per cent of the world GDP.

5. They are governance and economic centres. Most secondary cities are subnational capital cities responsible for the secondary level of government; key manufacturing, primary or resource-industry centre; or a global centre of cultural, natural or advanced-industry significance. They can also be major satellite cities forming a cluster of cities in a metro-region city.

6. They can really boost a national economy. Countries with a strong system of secondary cities – that are not dominated by a single megacity – tend to have lower levels of regional development disparities, higher levels of national productivity, and greater income per capita. An efficient secondary system of cities could double or triple the GDP of many poor cities and rural regions.

7. They come in all shapes and sizes. A secondary city will likely have a population or economy ranging in size between 10 per cent and 50 per cent of a nation’s largest city. In China, some secondary cities have populations of over five million; in Ethiopia, they have fewer than 200,000. Function and role – rather than population size – are increasingly defining a secondary city’s status within the global system of cities.

8. They are often eclipsed by primary cities. Globally, there is a growing gap in levels of socioeconomic development disparities occurring between secondary and primary cities that has a significant consequence on their capacity to develop and compete for trade and investment.

9. We don’t have much information about them. Most reports focus on the study of macro trends or the world’s biggest, most competitive, cities. There is much less information available on the economy, land, finance, infrastructure and governance of secondary cities. This situation is severely affecting their capacity to plan and manage urban development and promote employment and economic growth.

10. Few have the capacity for strategic planning. Much urban planning in secondary cities is geared towards master plans and structure planning. Very few have adopted integrated strategic planning, linking spatial plans to the development of infrastructure, land development, public finance, and long-term financial plans – a vital part of managing city development effectively, ensuring that resources are not wasted, and helping urban systems become much more efficient. Many cities can benefit from the excellent knowledge tools produced by organisations such as UN-Habitat, the Cities Alliance, Inter-American Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

Source:

CitiesAlliance

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On Death Anniversary of a True Leader

We need Such leaders today.

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Zipf’s Principle of Least Effort

The principle of least effort is the theory that the “one single primary principle” in any human action, including verbal communication, is the expenditure of the least amount of effort to accomplish a task. Also known as Zipf’s Law, Zipf’s Principle of Least Effort, and the path of least resistance.

The principle of least effort (PLE) was proposed in 1949 by Harvard linguist George Kingsley Zipf in Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort (see below). Zipf’s immediate area of interest was the statistical study of the frequency of word use, but his principle has also been applied in linguistics to such topics as lexical diffusion, language acquisition, and conversation analysis.

In addition, the principle of least effort has been used in a wide range of other disciplines, including psychology, sociology, economics, marketing, and information science.

Examples and Observations
Language Changes and the Principle of Least Effort
“One explanation for linguistic change is the principle of least effort. According to this principle, language changes because speakers are ‘sloppy’ and simplify their speech in various ways. Accordingly, abbreviated forms like math for mathematics and plane for airplane arise. Going to becomes gonna because the latter has two fewer phonemes to articulate. . . . On the morphological level, speakers use showed instead of shown as the past participle of show so that they will have one less irregular verb form to remember.

“The principle of least effort is an adequate explanation for many isolated changes, such as the reduction of God be with you to good-bye, and it probably plays an important role in most systemic changes, such as the loss of inflections in English.”
(C.M. Millward, A Biography of the English Language, 2nd ed. Harcourt Brace, 1996)

Writing Systems and the Principle of Least Effort
“The principal arguments advanced for the superiority of the alphabet over all other writing systems are so commonplace that they need not be repeated here in detail. They are utilitarian and economic in nature. The inventory of basic signs is small and can be easily learned, whereas it asks for substantial efforts to master a system with an inventory of thousands of elementary signs, like the Sumerian or Egyptian, which did what the Chinese, according to the evolutionary theory, should have done, namely give way to a system which can be handled with greater ease. This kind of thinking is reminiscent of Zipf’s (1949) Principle of Least Effort.”
(Florian Coulmas, “The Future of Chinese Characters.” The Influence of Language on Culture and Thought: Essays in Honor of Joshua A. Fishman’s Sixty-Fifth Birthday, ed. by Robert L. Cooper and Bernard Spolsky. Walter de Gruyter, 1991)

G.K. Zipf on the Principle of Least Effort
“In simple terms, the Principle of Least Effort means, for example, that a person in solving his immediate problems will view these against the background of his future problems, as estimated by himself. Moreover, he will strive to solve his problems in such a way as to minimize the total work that he must expend in solving both his immediate problems and his probable future problems. That, in turn, means that the person will strive to minimize the probable average rate of his work-expenditure (over time). And in so doing he will be minimizing his effort. . . . Least effort, therefore, is a variant of least work.”
(George Kingsley Zipf, Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort: An Introduction to Human Ecology. Addison-Wesley Press, 1949)

Applications of Zipf’s Law
“Zipf’s law is useful as a rough description of the frequency distribution of words in human languages: there are a few very common words, a middling number of medium frequency words, and many low-frequency words. [G.K.] Zipf saw in this a deep significance. According to his theory, both the speaker and the hearer are trying to minimize their effort. The speaker’s effort is conserved by having a small vocabulary of common words and the hearer’s effort is lessened by having a large vocabulary of individually rarer words (so that messages are less ambiguous). The maximally economical compromise between these competing needs is argued to be the kind of reciprocal relationship between frequency and rank that appears in the data supporting Zipf’s law.”
(Christopher D. Manning and Hinrich Schütze, Foundations of Statistical Natural Language Processing. The MIT Press, 1999)

“The PLE has been most recently applied as an explanation in the use of electronic resources, most notably Web sites (Adamic & Huberman, 2002; Huberman et al.

1998) and citations (White, 2001). In the future, it could be fruitfully used to study the tradeoff between the use of documentary sources (e.g. Web pages) and human sources (e.g. through email, listserves, and discussion groups); since both types of sources (documentary and human) are now located conveniently on our desktops, the question becomes: When will we choose one over the other, given that the difference in the effort has lessened?”
(Donald O. Case, “Principle of Least Effort.” Theories of Information Behavior, ed. by Karen E. Fisher, Sandra Erdelez, and Lynne [E.F.] McKechnie. Information Today, 2005)

Source:

Nordquist, Richard. “The Principle of Least Effort: Definition and Examples of Zipf’s Law.” ThoughtCo, Feb. 11, 2020, thoughtco.com/principle-of-least-effort-zipfs-law-1691104.

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