Origin of Petroleum: Biogenic Theory

Posted on April 20, 2008 by Rashid Faridi

Most geologists view crude oil and natural gas as the product of compression and heating of ancient organic materials over geological time. Oil is formed from the preserved remains of prehistoric zooplankton and algae which have been settled to the sea (or lake) bottom in large quantities under anoxic conditions. Terrestrial plants, on the other hand, tend to form coal. Over geological time this organic matter, mixed with mud, is buried under heavy layers of sediment. The resulting high levels of heat and pressure cause the organic matter to chemically change during diagenesis, first into a waxy material known as kerogen which is found in various oil shales around the world, and then with more heat into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons in a process known as catagenesis. Geologists often refer to an “oil window” which is the temperature range that oil forms in—below the minimum temperature oil remains trapped in the form of kerogen, and above the maximum temperature the oil is converted to natural gas through the process of thermal cracking. Though this happens at different depths in different locations around the world, a ‘typical’ depth for the oil window might be 4–6 km. Note that even if oil is formed at extreme depths, it may be trapped at much shallower depths where it was not formed (the Athabasca Oil Sands is one example).

Hydrocarbon trap.Hydrocarbon trap.

Because most hydrocarbons are lighter than rock or water, these often migrate upward through adjacent rock layers until they either reach the surface or become trapped beneath impermeable rocks, within porous rocks called reservoirs. However, the process is not straightforward since it is influenced by underground water flows, and oil may migrate hundreds of kilometres horizontally or even short distances downward before becoming trapped in a reservoir. Concentration of hydrocarbons in a trap forms an oil field, from which the liquid can be extracted by drilling and pumping. Three conditions must be present for oil reservoirs to form: first, a source rock rich in organic material buried deep enough for subterranean heat to cook it into oil; second, a porous and permeable reservoir rock for it to accumulate in; and last a cap rock (seal) or other mechanisms that prevents it from escaping to the surface. Within these reservoirs fluids will typically organize themselves like a three-layer cake with a layer of water below the oil layer and a layer of gas above it, although the different layers vary in size between reservoirs. The vast majority of oil that has been produced by the earth has long ago escaped to the surface and been biodegraded by oil-eating bacteria. Oil companies are looking for the small fraction that has been trapped by this rare combination of circumstances. Oil sands are reservoirs of partially biodegraded oil still in the process of escaping, but contain so much migrating oil that, although most of it has escaped, vast amounts are still present – more than can be found in conventional oil reservoirs. On the other hand, oil shales are source rocks that have never been buried deep enough to convert their trapped kerogen into oil. The reactions that produce oil and natural gas are often modeled as first order breakdown reactions, where kerogen is broken down to oil and natural gas by a set of parallel reactions, and oil eventually breaks down to natural gas by another set of reactions. The first set was originally patented in 1694 under British Crown Patent No. 330 covering,

“a way to extract and make great quantityes of pitch, tarr, and oyle out of a sort of stone.”

The latter set is regularly used in petrochemical plants and oil refineries.

dig deeper

Related articles
  • High hopes for hydrocarbons (ekathimerini.com)
  • Bacteria in Oilfields (idyllic.wordpress.com)
Posted in Archaeology | 5 Comments

Abiogenic petroleum origin

Posted on April 20, 2008 by Rashid Faridi

The theory of abiogenic petroleum origin holds that natural petroleum was formed from deep carbon deposits, perhaps dating to the formation of the Earth. The ubiquity of hydrocarbons in the solar system is taken as evidence that there may be a great deal more petroleum on Earth than commonly thought, and that petroleum may originate from carbon-bearing fluids which migrate upward from the mantle.
Various abiogenic hypotheses were first proposed in the nineteenth century, most notably by the Russian chemist Dmitri Mendeleev and the French chemist Marcellin Berthelot. Since that time, these hypotheses have lost ground to the dominant view that petroleum is a fossil fuel. The biogenic hypothesis for petroleum was first proposed in 1757 by Russian scholar Mikhail Lomonosov.
Abiogenic hypotheses saw a revival in the last half of the twentieth century by Russian and Ukrainian scientists, and more interest has been generated in the West after the publication in 1999 of The Deep Hot Biosphere by Thomas Gold. Gold’s version of the hypothesis partly is based on the existence of a biosphere composed of thermophile bacteria in the earth’s crust, which may explain the existence of certain biomarkers in extracted petroleum.
Although the abiogenic theory, according to Gold, is widely accepted in Russia, where it was intensively developed in the 1950s and 1960s, the vast majority of Western petroleum geologists consider the biogenic theory of petroleum formation scientifically proven. Although evidence exists for abiogenic creation of methane and hydrocarbon gases within the Earth, they are not produced in commercially significant quantities, so that essentially all hydrocarbon gases that are extracted for use as fuel or raw materials are biogenic. There is no direct evidence to date of abiogenic petroleum (liquid crude oil and long-chain hydrocarbon compounds) formed abiogenically within the crust, which is the essential prediction of the abiogenic petroleum theory.
The abiogenic origin of petroleum (liquid hydrocarbon oils) has recently been reviewed in detail by Glasby, who raises a number of objections.
History of abiogenic theory
The abiogenic petroleum theory was founded upon several old interpretations of geology that stem from early 19th century notions of magmatism (which at the time was attributed to sulfur fires and bitumen burning underground) and of petroleum, which was thought by many to fuel volcanoes. Indeed, Wernerian appreciation of basalts at times saw them as solidified oils or bitumen. While these notions have been disabused, the basic notion that petroleum is associated with magmatism has persisted. The chief proponents of what would become the abiogenic theory were Mendeleevand Berthelot.
Russian geologist Nikolai Alexandrovitch Kudryavtsev was the first to propose the modern abiotic theory of petroleum in 1951. He analyzed the geology of the Athabasca Tar Sands in Alberta, Canada and concluded that no “source rocks” could form the enormous volume of hydrocarbons (estimated today 1.7 trillion barrels), and that therefore the most plausible explanation is abiotic deep petroleum. However, humic coals have been proposed for the source rocks by Stanton (2005).
Although this theory is supported by geologists in Russia and Ukraine, it has recently begun to receive attention in the West, where the biogenic petroleum theory is accepted by the vast majority of petroleum geologists. Kudryavtsev’s work was continued by many Russian researchers — Petr N. Kropotkin, Vladimir B. Porfir’ev, Emmanuil B. Chekaliuk, Vladilen A. Krayushkin, Georgi E. Boyko, Georgi I. Voitov, Grygori N. Dolenko, Iona V. Greenberg, Nikolai S. Beskrovny, Victor F. Linetsky and many others.
Astrophysicist Thomas Gold was one of the abiogenic theory’s most prominent proponents in recent years in the West, until his death in 2004. Dr. Jack Kenney of Gas Resources Corporation is perhaps the foremost proponent in the West. The theory receives continued attention in oil industry media.
Foundations of the hypotheses
Within the mantle, carbon may exist as hydrocarbon molecules, chiefly methane, and as elemental carbon, carbon dioxide and carbonates. The abiotic hypothesis is that a full suite of hydrocarbons found in petroleum can be generated in the mantle by abiogenic processes, and these hydrocarbons can migrate out of the mantle, into the crust until they escape to the surface or are trapped by impermeable strata, forming petroleum reservoirs.
Abiogenic theories reject the supposition that certain molecules found within petroleum, known as “biomarkers,” are indicative of the biological origin of petroleum. They contend that some of these molecules could have come from the microbes that the petroleum encounters in its upward migration through the crust, and that some of them are found in meteorites, which have presumably never contacted living material, and that some can be generated by plausible reactions in petroleum abiogenically.

read more

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

Rain

Posted on April 19, 2008 by Rashid Faridi

Rain is a type of precipitation, a product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that is deposited on the Earth’s surface. It forms when separate drops of water fall to the Earth from clouds. Not all rain reaches the surface; some evaporates while falling through dry air. When none of it reaches the ground, it is called virga, a phenomenon often seen in hot, dry desert regions.

How rain is formed

Rain plays a role in the hydrologic cycle in which moisture from the oceans evaporates, condenses into drops, precipitates (falls) from the sky, and eventually returns to the ocean via rivers and streams to repeat the cycle again. The water vapor from plant respiration also contributes to the moisture in the atmosphere.

A major scientific explanation of how rain forms and falls is called the Bergeron process. More recent research points to the influence of Cloud condensation nuclei released as the result of biological processes.

Differing conditions for rainfall

Distant rain

Distant rain

Types of rainfall

Based on the reason for precipitation, rain is classified into:

  • Orographic rain
  • Convective rain
  • Frontal or cyclonic rain

    Human influence

    A view of rain falling on a street of Kolkata, India.

    A view of rain falling on a street of Kolkata, India.

    The fine particulate matter produced by car exhaust and other human sources of pollution form cloud condensation nuclei, leads to the production of clouds and increases the likelihood of rain. As commuters and commercial traffic cause pollution to build up over the course of the week, the likelihood of rain increases: it peaks by Saturday, after five days of weekday pollution has been built up. In heavily populated areas that are near the coast, such as the United States’ Eastern Seaboard, the effect can be dramatic: there is a 22% higher chance of rain on Saturdays than on Mondays

    Classifying the amount of rain

    When classified according to amount of precipitation, rain can be divided into:

  • Very light rain — when the precipitation rate is < 0.25 mm/hour
  • Light rain — when the precipitation rate is between 0.25 mm/hour – 1.0 mm/hour
  • Moderate rain — when the precipitation rate is between 1.0 mm/hour – 4.0 mm/hour
  • Heavy rain — when the precipitation rate is between 4.0 mm/hour – 16.0 mm/hour
  • Very heavy rain — when the precipitation rate is between 16.0 mm/hour – 50 mm/hour
  • Extreme rain — when the precipitation rate is > 50.0 mm/hour

    Properties

    Falling raindrops are often depicted in popular culture as “teardrop-shaped” — round at the bottom and narrowing towards the top — but this is incorrect. Only drops of water dripping from some sources are tear-shaped at the moment of formation. Small raindrops are nearly spherical. Larger ones become increasingly flattened on the bottom, like hamburger buns; very large ones are shaped like parachutes. The shape of raindrops was studied by Philipp Lenard in 1898. He found that small raindrops (less than about 2 mm diameter) are approximately spherical. As they get larger (to about 5 mm diameter) they become more doughnut shaped. Beyond about 5 mm they become unstable and fragment. On average, raindrops are 1 to 2 mm in diameter. The biggest raindrops on Earth were recorded over Brazil and the Marshall Islands in 2004 — some of them were as large as 10 mm. The large size is explained by condensation on large smoke particles or by collisions between drops in small regions with particularly high content of liquid water.

     

    Rain falling

    Raindrops impact at their terminal velocity, which is greater for larger drops. At sea level and without wind, 0.5 mm drizzle impacts at about 2 m/s, while large 5 mm drops impact at around 9 m/s. The sound of raindrops hitting water is caused by bubbles of air oscillating underwater. See droplet’s sound.

    Generally, rain has a pH slightly under 6. This is because atmospheric carbon dioxide dissolves in the droplet to form minute quantities of carbonic acid, which then partially dissociates, lowering the pH. In some desert areas, airborne dust contains enough calcium carbonate to counter the natural acidity of precipitation, and rainfall can be neutral or even alkaline. Rain below pH 5.6 is considered acid rain.

Measuring Rainfall

Rainfall is typically measured using a rain gauge. It is expressed as the depth of water that collects on a flat surface, and is routinely measured with an accuracy up to 0.1 mm or 0.01 in. Rain gauges are usually placed at a uniform height above the ground, which may vary depending on the country. There are two types of gauges. Storage rain gauges are used to make daily or monthly measurements. Recording rain gauges measure the intensity of rainfall using a tipping bucket which will only tip when a certain volume of water is in it. An electrical switch can be used to record the tips.
Effect on Agriculture

Precipitation, especially rain, has a dramatic effect on agriculture. All plants need at least some water to survive, therefore rain (being the most effective means of watering) is important to agriculture. While a regular rain pattern is usually vital to healthy plants, too much or too little rainfall can be harmful, even devastating to crops. Drought can kill crops in massive numbers, while overly wet weather can cause disease and harmful fungus. Plants need varying amounts of rainfall to survive. For example, cacti need small amounts of water while tropical plants may need up to hundreds of inches of rain to survive.

Agriculture of all nations at least to some extent is dependent on rain. Indian agriculture, for example, (which accounts for 25 percent of the GDP and employs 70 percent of the nation’s population) is heavily dependent on the rains, especially crops like cotton, rice, oilseeds and coarse grains. A delay of a few days in the arrival of the monsoon can, and does, badly affect the economy, as evidenced in the numerous droughts in India in the 90s.

Culture

Cultural attitudes towards rain differ across the world. In the largely temperate Europe, rain metaphorically has a sad and negative connotation — reflected in children’s rhymes like Rain Rain Go Away — in contrast to the bright and happy sun. Though the traditional notion of rain in the Western World is negative, rain can also bring joy, as some consider it to be soothing or enjoy the aesthetic appeal of it. In dry places, such as parts of Africa, Australia, India, and the Middle East, rain is greeted with euphoria. (In Botswana, the Setswana word for rain, “pula,” is used as the name of the national currency, in recognition of the economic importance of rain in this desert country.)

Several cultures have developed means of dealing with rain and have developed numerous protection devices such as umbrellas and raincoats, and diversion devices such as gutters and storm drains that lead rains to sewers. Many people also prefer to stay inside on rainy days, especially in tropical climates where rain is usually accompanied by thunderstorms or is extremely heavy (as in a monsoon). Rain may be harvested, though rainwater is rarely pure (as acid rain occurs naturally), or used as greywater. Excessive rain, particularly after a dry period that has hardened the soil so that it cannot absorb water, can cause floods.

Many people find the scent during and immediately after rain especially pleasant or distinctive. The source of this scent is petrichor, an oil produced by plants, then absorbed by rocks and soil, and later released into the air during rainfall. Light or heavy rain is sometimes seen as romantic.

dig more

Posted in Agriculture, climate change, culture | 3 Comments

Climate Change

Posted on April 18, 2008 by Rashid Faridi

Climate change is any long-term significant change in the “average weather” that a given region experiences. Average weather may include average temperature, precipitation and wind patterns. It involves changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over durations ranging from decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by dynamic process on Earth, external forces including variations in sunlight intensity, and more recently by human activities.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term “climate change” often refers to changes in modern climate (see global warming). For information on temperature measurements over various periods, and the data sources available, see temperature record. For attribution of climate change over the past century, see attribution of recent climate change.

Climate change factors

Climate changes reflect variations within the Earth’s atmosphere, processes in other parts of the Earth such as oceans and ice caps, and the effects of human activity. The external factors that can shape climate are often called climate forcings and include such processes as variations in solar radiation, the Earth’s orbit, and greenhouse gas concentrations.

Variations within the Earth’s climate

Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, and is a chaotic non-linear dynamical system. On the other hand, climate — the average state of weather — is fairly stable and predictable. Climate includes the average temperature, amount of precipitation, days of sunlight, and other variables that might be measured at any given site. However, there are also changes within the Earth’s environment that can affect the climate.

Glaciation

Glaciers are recognized as being among the most sensitive indicators of climate change, advancing substantially during climate cooling (e.g., the Little Ice Age) and retreating during climate warming on moderate time scales. Glaciers grow and collapse, both contributing to natural variability and greatly amplifying externally forced changes. For the last century, however, glaciers have been unable to regenerate enough ice during the winters to make up for the ice lost during the summer months (see glacier retreat).

The most significant climate processes of the last several million years are the glacial and interglacial cycles of the present ice age.[citation needed] Though shaped by orbital variations, the internal responses involving continental ice sheets and 130 m sea-level change certainly played a key role in deciding what climate response would be observed in most regions. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard–Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas show the potential for glacial variations to influence climate even in the absence of specific orbital changes.

 Ocean variability

On the scale of decades, climate changes can also result from interaction of the atmosphere and oceans. Many climate fluctuations — including not only the El Niño Southern oscillation (the best known) but also the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation — owe their existence at least in part to different ways that heat can be stored in the oceans and move between different reservoirs. On longer time scales ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat, and can dramatically affect climate.

The memory of climate

More generally, most forms of internal variability in the climate system can be recognized as a form of hysteresis, meaning that the current state of climate reflects not only the inputs, but also the history of how it got there. For example, a decade of dry conditions may cause lakes to shrink, plains to dry up and deserts to expand. In turn, these conditions may lead to less rainfall in the following years. In short, climate change can be a self-perpetuating process because different aspects of the environment respond at different rates and in different ways to the fluctuations that inevitably occur.

 Non-climate factors driving climate change

Greenhouse gases

Current studies indicate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is the primary cause of global warming. Greenhouse gases are also important in understanding Earth’s climate history. According to these studies, the greenhouse effect, which is the warming produced as greenhouse gases trap heat, plays a key role in regulating Earth’s temperature.

Over the last 600 million years, carbon dioxide concentrations have varied from perhaps >5000 ppm to less than 200 ppm, due primarily to the effect of geological processes and biological innovations. It has been argued by Veizer et al., 1999, that variations in greenhouse gas concentrations over tens of millions of years have not been well correlated to climate change, with plate tectonics perhaps playing a more dominant role. More recently Royer et al. have used the CO2-climate correlation to derive a value for the climate sensitivity. There are several examples of rapid changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere that do appear to correlate to strong warming, including the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum, the Permian–Triassic extinction event, and the end of the Varangian snowball earth event.

During the modern era, the naturally rising carbon dioxide levels are implicated as the primary cause of global warming since 1950. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2005 was 379 ppm³ compared to the pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm³. Thermodynamics and Le Chatelier’s principle explain the characteristics of the dynamic equilibrium of a gas in solution such as the vast amount of CO2 held in solution in the world’s oceans moving into and returning from the atmosphere. These principles can be observed as bubbles which rise in a pot of water heated on a stove, or in a glass of cold beer allowed to sit at room temperature; gases dissolved in liquids are released under certain circumstances.

Plate tectonics

On the longest time scales, plate tectonics will reposition continents, shape oceans, build and tear down mountains and generally serve to define the stage upon which climate exists. More recently, plate motions have been implicated in the intensification of the present ice age when, approximately 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided to form the Isthmus of Panama and shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Solar variation

The sun is the ultimate source of essentially all heat in the climate system. The energy output of the sun, which is converted to heat at the Earth’s surface, is an integral part of shaping the Earth’s climate. On the longest time scales, the sun itself is getting brighter with higher energy output; as it continues its main sequence, this slow change or evolution affects the Earth’s atmosphere. It is thought that, early in Earth’s history, the sun was too cold to support liquid water at the Earth’s surface, leading to what is known as the Faint young sun paradox..

On more modern time scales, there are also a variety of forms of solar variation, including the 11-year solar cycle and longer-term modulations. However, the 11-year sunspot cycle does not manifest itself clearly in the climatological data. Solar intensity variations are considered to have been influential in triggering the Little Ice Age, and for some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun’s energy output is not yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow change that is happening within the sun as it ages and evolves.[citation needed].

Physicist and historian Spencer R. Weart in The discovery of Global Warming (2003) writes:

The study of [sun spot] cycles was generally popular through the first half of the century. Governments had collected a lot of weather data to play with and inevitably people found correlations between sun spot cycles and select weather patterns. If rainfall in England didn’t fit the cycle, maybe storminess in New England would. Respected scientists and enthusiastic amateurs insisted they had found patterns reliable enough to make predictions. Sooner or later though every prediction failed. An example was a highly credible forecast of a dry spell in Africa during the sunspot minimum of the early 1930s. When the period turned out to be wet, a meteorologist later recalled “the subject of sunspots and weather relationships fell into dispute, especially among British meteorologists who witnessed the discomfiture of some of their most respected superiors.” Even in the 1960s he said, “For a young [climate] researcher to entertain any statement of sun-weather relationships was to brand oneself a crank.”)

Orbital variations

In their effect on climate, orbital variations are in some sense an extension of solar variability, because slight variations in the Earth’s orbit lead to changes in the distribution and abundance of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface. Such orbital variations, known as Milankovitch cycles, are a highly predictable consequence of basic physics due to the mutual interactions of the Earth, its moon, and the other planets. These variations are considered the driving factors underlying the glacial and interglacial cycles of the present ice age. Subtler variations are also present, such as the repeated advance and retreat of the Sahara desert in response to orbital precession.

Volcanism

A single eruption of the kind that occurs several times per century can affect climate, causing cooling for a period of a few years. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 affected climate substantially. Huge eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million years, but can reshape climate for millions of years and cause mass extinctions. Initially, scientists thought that the dust emitted into the atmosphere from large volcanic eruptions was responsible for the cooling by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth’s surface. However, measurements indicate that most of the dust thrown in the atmosphere returns to the Earth’s surface within six months.

Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time periods, they release carbon dioxide from the earth’s interior, counteracting the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. However, this contribution is insignificant compared to the current anthropogenic emissions. The US Geological Survey estimates that human activities generate more than 130 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.

Human influences on climate change

Anthropogenic factors are human activities that change the environment and influence climate. In some cases the chain of causality is direct and unambiguous (e.g., by the effects of irrigation on temperature and humidity), while in others it is less clear. Various hypotheses for human-induced climate change have been debated for many years.

The biggest factor of present concern is the increase in CO2 levels due to emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere), which exert a cooling effect, and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture[ and deforestation, also affect climate.

 Fossil fuels

Carbon dioxide variations over the last 400,000 years, showing a rise since the industrial revolution.

Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 1850s and accelerating ever since, the human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO2 levels from a concentration of ~280 ppm to more than 380 ppm today. These increases are projected to reach more than 560 ppm before the end of the 21st century. It is known that carbon dioxide levels are substantially higher now than at any time in the last 750,000 years. Along with rising methane levels, these changes are anticipated to cause an increase of 1.4–5.6 °C between 1990 and 2100 (see global warming).

Aerosols

Anthropogenic aerosols, particularly sulphate aerosols from fossil fuel combustion, exert a cooling influence. This, together with natural variability, is believed to account for the relative “plateau” in the graph of 20th-century temperatures in the middle of the century.

Cement manufacture

Cement manufacturing is the third largest cause of man-made carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon dioxide is produced when calcium carbonate (CaCO3) is heated to produce the cement ingredient calcium oxide (CaO, also called quicklime). While fossil fuel combustion and deforestation each produce significantly more carbon dioxide (CO2), cement-making is responsible for approximately 2.5% of total worldwide emissions from industrial sources (energy plus manufacturing sectors).

Land use

Prior to widespread fossil fuel use, humanity’s largest effect on local climate is likely to have resulted from land use. Irrigation, deforestation, and agriculture fundamentally change the environment. For example, they change the amount of water going into and out of a given location. They also may change the local albedo by influencing the ground cover and altering the amount of sunlight that is absorbed. For example, there is evidence to suggest that the climate of Greece and other Mediterranean countries was permanently changed by widespread deforestation between 700 BC and 1 AD (the wood being used for shipbuilding, construction and fuel), with the result that the modern climate in the region is significantly hotter and drier, and the species of trees that were used for shipbuilding in the ancient world can no longer be found in the area.

A controversial hypothesis by William Ruddiman called the early anthropocene hypothesis suggests that the rise of agriculture and the accompanying deforestation led to the increases in carbon dioxide and methane during the period 5000–8000 years ago. These increases, which reversed previous declines, may have been responsible for delaying the onset of the next glacial period, according to Ruddimann’s overdue-glaciation hypothesis.

In modern times, a 2007 Jet Propulsion Laboratory study found that the average temperature of California has risen about 2 degrees over the past 50 years, with a much higher increase in urban areas. The change was attributed mostly to extensive human development of the landscape.

Livestock

According to a 2006 United Nations report, Livestock’s Long Shadow, livestock is responsible for 18% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalents. This however includes land usage change, meaning deforestation in order to create grazing land. In the Amazon Rainforest, 70% of deforestation is to make way for grazing land, so this is the major factor in the 2006 UN FAO report, which was the first agricultural report to include land usage change into the radiative forcing of livestock. In addition to CO2 emissions, livestock produces 65% of human-induced nitrous oxide (which has 296 times the global warming potential of CO2) and 37% of human-induced methane (which has 23 times the global warming potential of CO2).

Interplay of factors

If a certain forcing (for example, solar variation) acts to change the climate, then there may be mechanisms that act to amplify or reduce the effects. These are called positive and negative feedbacks. As far as is known, the climate system is generally stable with respect to these feedbacks: positive feedbacks do not “run away”. Part of the reason for this is the existence of a powerful negative feedback between temperature and emitted radiation: radiation increases as the fourth power of absolute temperature.

However, a number of important positive feedbacks do exist. The glacial and interglacial cycles of the present ice age provide an important example. It is believed that orbital variations provide the timing for the growth and retreat of ice sheets. However, the ice sheets themselves reflect sunlight back into space and hence promote cooling and their own growth, known as the ice-albedo feedback. Further, falling sea levels and expanding ice decrease plant growth and indirectly lead to declines in carbon dioxide and methane. This leads to further cooling. Conversely, rising temperatures caused, for example, by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to decreased snow and ice cover, revealing darker ground underneath, and consequently result in more absorption of sunlight.

Water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide can also act as significant positive feedbacks, their levels rising in response to a warming trend, thereby accelerating that trend. Water vapor acts strictly as a feedback (excepting small amounts in the stratosphere), unlike the other major greenhouse gases, which can also act as forcings.

More complex feedbacks involve the possibility of changing circulation patterns in the ocean or atmosphere. For example, a significant concern in the modern case is that melting glacial ice from Greenland will interfere with sinking waters in the North Atlantic and inhibit thermohaline circulation. This could affect the Gulf Stream and the distribution of heat to Europe and the east coast of the United States.

Other potential feedbacks are not well understood and may either inhibit or promote warming. For example, it is unclear whether rising temperatures promote or inhibit vegetative growth, which could in turn draw down either more or less carbon dioxide. Similarly, increasing temperatures may lead to either more or less cloud cover. Since on balance cloud cover has a strong cooling effect, any change to the abundance of clouds also affects climate.

Monitoring the current status of climate

Scientists use “Indicator time series” that represent the many aspects of climate and ecosystem status. The time history provides a historical context. Current status of the climate is also monitored with climate indices.[13][14][15][16]

Evidence for climatic change

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to reconstruct past climates. Most of the evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred from changes in indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, dendrochronology, ice cores, sea level change, and glacial retreat.

Pollen analysis

Palynology is the science that studies contemporary and fossil palynomorphs, including pollen. Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species, which vary under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different sedimentation levels in lakes, bogs or river deltas indicate changes in plant communities; which are dependent on climate conditions].

Beetles

Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and of the age of the sediments in which remains are found, allows past climatic conditions to be inferred.

Glacial geology

Advancing glaciers leave behind moraines and other features that often have datable material in them, recording the time when a glacier advanced and deposited a feature. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of datable soil or volcanic tephra horizons. Glaciers are considered one of the most sensitive climate indicators by the IPCC, and their recent observed variations provide a global signal of climate change. See Retreat of glaciers since 1850.

Examples of climate change

Climate change has continued throughout the entire history of Earth. The field of paleoclimatology has provided information of climate change in the ancient past, supplementing modern observations of climate.

  1. Climate of the deep past
    • Faint young sun paradox
    • Snowball earth
    • Oxygen Catastrophe
  2. Climate of the last 500 million years
    • Phanerozoic overview
    • Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
    • Cretaceous Thermal Maximum
    • Permo–Carboniferous Glaciation
    • Ice ages
  3. Climate of recent glaciations
    • Dansgaard–Oeschger event
    • Younger Dryas
    • Ice age temperatures
  4. Recent climate
    • Holocene Climatic Optimum
    • Medieval Warm Period
    • Little Ice Age
    • Year Without a Summer
    • Temperature record of the past 1000 years
    • Global warming
    • Hardiness Zone Migration

 Climate change and biodiversity

The life cycles of many wild plants and animals are closely linked to the passing of the seasons; climatic changes can lead to interdependent pairs of species (e.g. a wild flower and its pollinating insect) losing synchronization, if, for example, one has a cycle dependent on day length and the other on temperature or precipitation. In principle, at least, this could lead to extinctions or changes in the distribution and abundance of species. One phenomenon is the movement of species northwards in Europe. A recent study by Butterfly Conservation in the UK, has shown that relatively common species with a southerly distribution have moved north, whilst scarce upland species have become rarer and lost territory towards the south. This picture has been mirrored across several invertebrate groups. Drier summers could lead to more periods of drought, potentially affecting many species of animal and plant. For example, in the UK during the drought year of 2006 significant numbers of trees died or showed dieback on light sandy soils. In Australia, since the early 90s, tens of thousands of flying foxes (Pteropus) have died as a direct result of extreme heat. Wetter, milder winters might affect temperate mammals or insects by preventing them hibernating or entering torpor during periods when food is scarce. One predicted change is the ascendancy of ‘weedy’ or opportunistic species at the expense of scarcer species with narrower or more specialized ecological requirements. One example could be the expanses of bluebell seen in many woodlands in the UK. These have an early growing and flowering season before competing weeds can develop and the tree canopy closes. Milder winters can allow weeds to overwinter as adult plants or germinate sooner, whilst trees leaf earlier, reducing the length of the window for bluebells to complete their life cycle. Organisations such as Wildlife Trust, World Wide Fund for Nature, Birdlife International and the Audubon Society are actively monitoring and research the effects of climate change on biodiversity and advance policies in areas such as landscape scale conservation to promote adaptation to climate change.

source:wikipedia

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment